November CPI inflation data meets forecasts, cementing Fed rate cut bets

New inflation data out Wednesday showed consumer prices rose as forecast in November, keeping the Federal Reserve on track to lower interest rates again in December.

The latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 2.7% over the prior year in November, a slight uptick from October’s 2.6% annual gain in prices. The yearly increase matched economist expectations.

The index rose 0.3% over the previous month, ahead of the 0.2% increase seen in October and also on par with economists’ estimates. This was the largest monthly gain since April after rising 0.2% the previous four months.

On a “core” basis, which strips out the more volatile costs of food and gas, prices in November climbed 0.3% over the prior month, matching October, and 3.3% over last year for the fourth consecutive month.

The sticky nature of the print “is a little disconcerting,” Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics, wrote on Wednesday. “But we don’t expect it to persuade the Fed to skip another 25bp rate cut at next week’s FOMC meeting.”

Core inflation has remained stubbornly elevated due to higher costs for shelter and services like insurance and medical care. Used car prices also saw an uptick month over month, rising 2% in November amid a rebound in auction prices.

Although inflation has been slowing, it has remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target on an annual basis.

The election of Donald Trump as the nation’s next president has further complicated the outlook, with some economists arguing the US could face another inflation resurgence if Trump follows through with his key campaign promises.

Trump’s proposed policies, such as high tariffs on imported goods, tax cuts for corporations, and curbs on immigration, are considered by economists to be potentially inflationary. Those policies could further complicate the Federal Reserve’s path forward for interest rates.

Immediately following the report, markets continued to price in another 25 basis point cut at the central bank’s meeting next week, with the odds of a cut increasing to 97% from about a 89% chance one day prior.

“As markets came into today’s figure with fears of an upside surprise, the in-line number is being received very positively,” wrote Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management. “But overall, the Fed will be concerned by the very stubborn nature of inflation and will be increasingly cautious about the upside inflation risks that President-elect Trump’s policies may bring.”

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“We expect the Fed to move off autopilot in January, adopting a more cautious tone, and slowing its pace of cuts to just every other meeting.”

Shelter moderates, food remains sticky

Notable callouts from the inflation print include the shelter index, which rose 4.7% on an unadjusted, annual basis, lower than October’s 4.9% increase. The index rose 0.3% month over month after rising 0.4% in October.

Shelter contributed to nearly 40% of the monthly increase in overall inflation, the BLS said. Sticky shelter inflation has largely been blamed for higher core inflation readings, according to economists.

At Yahoo Finance’s Invest conference last month, Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari categorized housing inflation as “the big elephant that is still out there” but did say he’s confident price increases will slow as new leases are signed at lower rates.

The index for rent and owners’ equivalent rent (OER) each rose 0.2% from October to November, a deceleration from the prior month’s reading and the smallest 1-month increases since July 2021 and April 2021, respectively. Owners’ equivalent rent is the hypothetical rent a homeowner would pay for the same property.

The lodging away from home index rose 3.2% after rising a much more modest 0.4% in October.

Meanwhile, the energy index rose 0.2% month over month after holding steady in October. On a yearly basis, the energy index was down 3.2% in November after a 4.9% decline the previous month.

The food index increased 2.4% in November over the last year, with food prices rising 0.4% month over month — proving to be a sticky category for inflation. The index for food at home rose 0.5% in November after prices rose 0.1% from September to October, while food away from home increased 0.3%.

Egg prices were a standout with prices increasing 8.2% month over month after falling 6.4% in October.

Other indexes with notable increases over the last month include recreation, education, personal care, and apparel. In contrast, the index for communication fell 1% in November after falling 0.6% in October and September, according to the BLS.

Alexandra Canal is a Senior Reporter at Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X @allie_canal, LinkedIn, and email her at alexandra.canal@yahoofinance.com.

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