Institutional investors and professional traders rely on The Fly to keep up-to-the-second on breaking news in the electric vehicle and clean energy space, as well as which stocks in these sectors that the best analysts on Wall Street are saying to buy and sell.
From the hotly-debated high-flier Tesla (TSLA), Wall Street’s newest darling Rivian (RIVN), traditional-stalwarts turned EV-upstarts GM (GM) and Ford (F) to the numerous SPAC-deal makers that have come public in this red-hot space, The Fly has you covered with “Charged,” a weekly recap of the top stories and expert calls in the sector.
Q4 DELIVERIES: Barclays expects Tesla to report Q4 deliveries of 515,000 units, up 6% year-over-year and just above the consensus estimate of 511,000. A beat could keep the stock’s narrative momentum strong, but the focus on Tesla’s fundamentals is limited overall, the firm tells investors in a research note. Barclays believes a slight near-term volume miss “would likely do little to dampen” Tesla’s autonomous vehicle and artificial intelligence push, which it says has recently come into greater focus ahead of the planned “Unsupervised FSD” launch in 2025. Conversely, a slight beat on Q4 is likely immaterial to the majority of the current Tesla bull case, the firm adds. It keeps an Equal Weight rating on Tesla with a $270 price target.
NOT AS POSITIVE: Barclays also said it believes the post-election rally in shares of Tesla reflects a “sharp disconnect” between the stock and the company’s fundamentals. Technicals and options are playing an outsized role in the rally, the firm tells investors in a research note. Barclays believes Tesla shares are now best comped to crypto. There are little incremental positives to Tesla’s fundamentals from the election, but Elon Musk’s premium is now elevated, contends the firm. The last six weeks “serve as a reminder that Tesla remains a narrative king within the market, with fundamentals cast aside,” it adds.
While 2025 consensus earnings estimates are up slightly in the past six weeks, Tesla’s multiple has increased to a “frothy” 145-times 2025 numbers, up from 80-times immediately pre-election, Barclays points out. It calls Trump’s “not as positive as you’d think” for Tesla’s fundamentals. The firm keeps an Equal Weight rating on Tesla with a $270 price target.
